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NYMEX Crude $ 50.52 DN $.3300
NY Harbor ULSD $1.5798 UP $.0058
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NEWS
Oil futures, meanwhile, eased back as doubts surrounding the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’s plan to curb production resurfaced in the wake of Iraq’s apparent unwillingness to participate in the deal.

Natural gas has fallen amid forecasts for “warm weather in the near-term, especially in the South and central U.S.,” said Daniel Holder, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric. “Supply is looking quite strong going into winter, with the storage peak eyeing the 4 [trillion-cubic-foot] level after a couple of November injections.” November natural gas sank by 16.2 cents, or 5.4%, to settle at $2.831 per million British thermal units, the lowest since Sept. 9. Futures have fallen for three straight sessions, including a 4.7% drop seen on Friday. The retreat follows a climb to a 22-month high less than two weeks ago after data showed U.S. supplies rose less than expected and a government report raised the outlook for 2016 and 2017 prices for the fuel. The Energy Information Administration on Thursday, however, reported that supplies rose a bit more than expected for the week ended Oct. 14, with analysts noting that warmer-than-usual weather dulled demand for natural gas. Supplies in storage are likely to continue their increases into the middle of November, said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures, in a note Monday.

Oil’s retreat
Oil futures retreated Monday, easing back from a gain last week, on signs that the production cut proposed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could face more headwinds after Iraq signaled it wants to be excluded from the pact. December West Texas Intermediate crude declined by 33 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $50.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile after a brief, intraday dip below $50. December Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange shed 32 cents, or 0.6%, to $51.46 a barrel. “In the narrative of the coordinated OPEC production cut, the current hiccup in participation is coming from Iraq,” said Schneider Electric’s Holder. “The organization’s second-largest producer is arguing that it should be exempt from production cuts as it is needing the revenues to fight the Islamic State.” Iraqi oil officials over the weekend reportedly said they would not scale back output which currently stands at 4.77 million barrels a day. A collective production cut without “would be harder to achieve without [Iraq] on board,” said Gao Jian, an energy analyst at SCI International. “There is a risk that Iraq’s refusal could trigger a domino effect that other producers would ask to be exempt from the cuts too,” he added.

ANZ Research said rising discord within OPEC could also potentially fluster Russia’s participation in the cut. Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft recently said it has the capacity to expand production if necessary, and would only curb if the government instructs it to do so.

OPEC members are scheduled to meet on Nov. 30 to discuss individual production quotas that would limit the cartel’s production to a maximum of 33 million barrels a day.

Oil prices are also under pressure as the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. continued to climb. Last week, the oil-rig count rose by 11 to 443, according to oil-field services company Baker.

Analysts this week will be monitoring political developments in Venezuela where the congress has declared a coup d’état by President Nicolás Maduro’s government after he blocked a referendum to recall him. Venezuela, an oil-dependent economy has been hit hard by the prolonged price collapse. Its crude production declined 11% year-over-year to 2.3 million barrels in September and the economy is expected to contract by at least 10% this year.