Bullish data from the EIA and promises from OPEC+ to eradicate under-compliance boosted oil markets, but fears of a second wave of COVID-19 cases are keeping a cap on oil prices.

he big oil market news of the week was the easing of cuts from OPEC+. The markets largely welcomed the move, especially since it included pledges by laggards to temporarily keep some supply off of the market to compensate for past under-compliance. Meanwhile, bullish EIA data also boosted sentiment. However, by the end of the week, concerns about slowing oil demand weighed on prices, keeping them stuck at around $40.

OPEC+ delivers on easing. OPEC+ cut really deep in June, and the cohesion was maintained as the group moved to ease production cuts from 9.7 mb/d to 7.7 mb/d in August. However, the headline number is mitigated by the fact that the so-called laggards are supposed to “compensate” for overproducing in recent months. So, the effective production cuts may only decline to 8.1 to 8.3 mb/d in August instead of 7.7 mb/d.

Room to increase? Probably. Analysts mostly think that there is room for OPEC+ to increase production without leading to a slide in prices. After all, demand apparently outstrips supply at the moment. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the increase will be “barely felt.” Still, significant downside risk remains, largely revolving around the potential hit to demand from the coronavirus and renewed closures.

U.S. gasoline demand eases back. U.S. gasoline demand fell 5 percent last week, the second consecutive week of declines. “Normally this two-week period would have been the peak demand period and we didn’t get it,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. “The recovery has been unwinding.”