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Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED” today/tonight ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 78.74 DN $1.2300

NYMEX ULSD     $2.6472 DN $0.0570

NYMEX Gas       $2.5857 DN $0.0287

NEWS

April WTI crude oil on Monday closed down -1.23 (-1.54%), and Apr RBOB gasoline closed down -2.87 (-1.10%). Crude oil and gasoline prices posted moderate losses on Monday.  An increase in OPEC crude production is bearish for oil prices.  Also, doubts about OPEC+ compliance with its crude production cuts are bearish for oil prices.  Ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East are a supportive factor for crude oil.  

OPEC Feb crude production rose +110,000 bpd to 26.680 million bpd, a bearish factor for oil prices as Iraq and UAE continue to pump above their production quotas.

A recovery in Russian crude refining from Ukranian drone attacks is negative for prices.  Bloomberg calculations show Russia processed 5.44 million bpd of crude during the Feb 15-28 period, more than +4% above levels in the first half of February.  Several Russian oil processing and storage facilities have been targeted and damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks but have been repaired and are running near capacity.

A report from Vortexa on Monday weighed on crude prices as it said OPEC+ compliance with crude production cuts is still “questionable.” The report said that Russian oil exports were about 500,000 bpd above the OPEC+ commitments, and there are “little indications that Russia is actively cutting either crude production or exports.”  An increase in Russian crude oil exports is negative for crude oil prices.  Tanker-tracking data from Vortexa, monitored by Bloomberg, shows Russian crude exports in the week to Feb 25 rose about +365,000 bpd from the prior week to 3.5 million bpd.

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Loren R Bailey, President

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