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Market Close: Oct 09

NYMEX Crude $ 49.63 UP $.2000
NY Harbor ULSD $1.5909 DN $.0109
NYMEX Gasoline $1.4167 UP $.0089

NEWS
Oil futures logged a 9% weekly gain on Friday, supported by weakness in the U.S. dollar, the conflict in Syria and the possibility of a collaboration among the major oil producers, but prices still settled under the key $50 level.
Data showing a fall in U.S. oil-rig counts was also supportive, while expectations that slowing U.S. refinery activity will help expand the glut of crude supplies capped price gains.

November West Texas Intermediate crude rose 20 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $49.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since July 21. Prices had traded as high as $50.92 during the session.

November Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange, however, fell 40 cents, or about 0.8%, to $52.65 a barrel, but still saw a gain of more than 9% on the week. On the upside for oil prices, “further dovish rhetoric” from Thursday’s release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting helped to weaken the dollar providing a boost to dollar-denominated oil, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData.

A rebound in emerging-market sentiment and a “return of geopolitical tension with Russia’s military activities in Syria,” have also been oil supportive, he said. Recent reports of possible collaboration among major oil producers, including those outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries bloc, such as Russia, have helped sentiment as well.

Meanwhile, data from Baker Hughes Friday showed that the number of active U.S. oil-drilling rigs fell 9 to 605 in the latest week. “This is a sign that U.S. output has peaked and will fall much faster than people think,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “It wont just be oil rigs, but all facets of production.”

Still, the “rig rout” is not a surprise, said Flynn, and while the U.S. House voted Friday to lift the ban on oil exports, the vote in the Senate will be “tougher.” The oil market also experienced a week of “bad fundamentals,” said Richard Hastings, macro strategist at Seaport Global Securities. A report Wednesday revealed an increase in weekly U.S. crude supplies and production. “U.S. oil supplies could climb by another 10 million barrels in the next month if refinery outages trend too high,” said Hastings. “Without geopolitical risks to supply, then these fundamentals are going to suppress any oil-price rally,” he said.