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NYMEX Crude $ 46.29 UP $.4100
NY Harbor ULSD $1.4415 UP $.0111
NYMEX Gasoline $1.3899 UP $.0288

NEWS
Oil futures settled higher Monday as the guesswork surrounding the likelihood of a collective agreement among crude producers to cap output and the potential for a U.S. interest-rate increase continued.

A report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said non-OPEC crude production is likely to climb in the second half of this year, lowering the possibility that OPEC members, who fear the loss of market share, will reach a deal at a meeting later this month to freeze output. Remarks by a Federal Reserve official, however, played down the potential for a U.S. interest-rate increase soon, putting some pressure on the dollar, which gave dollar-denominated oil prices some support. And oil prices got an added boost after data from Genscape Inc. suggested that crude supplies at the Nymex futures delivery hub of Cushing, Okla., fell by more than 1.2 million barrels as of the week ended Sept. 9, according to sources.

October West Texas Intermediate crude tacked on 41 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $46.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after earlier taping lows under $45. The November contract for Brent rose 31 cents, or 0.7%, at $48.32 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

In a monthly report released Monday, OPEC said production by major oil producers who are not members of the cartel will fall by about 610,000 barrels a day this year. That decline is about 180,000 barrels a day less than previously forecast, however. OPEC attributed the change to higher-than-expected production of U.S. shale oil. OPEC also said that non-OPEC production in the second half of the year is likely to be higher than the first half. “With the revision, expectations of oversupply well into 2017 have strengthened,” said Robbie Fraser, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, in a note. “Crude prices have also generally come under pressure recently as the likelihood of [an interest] rate hike from the Federal Reserve later this month has increased, in turn weighing on prices,” he said, adding that a rate rise would be expected to boost the relative value of the U.S. dollar, which can pressure prices of oil because they’re traded in the greenback. But in a speech Monday, Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard urged “prudence” in moving to tighten monetary policy. Her comments were the final words from a Fed official before the central bank’s meeting on Sept. 20-21. Earlier Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said there is no pressing need for action from the Fed, while Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said he wouldn’t discuss his opinion of what the central bank will likely do at its meetings for the rest of the year, but did say that economic data in recent weeks warranted “serious discussion of a policy rate increase.” Neither Kashkari nor Lockhart are voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee this year.

A whopping 14.5 million-barrel decline in weekly U.S. stockpiles of crude oil had helped prices for the commodity finish higher last week. But most observers have agreed the massive crude supply decline was driven mostly by the recent storm in the Gulf of Mexico, which disrupted shipping and energy production in the region. The inventory data may see a similarly-sized buildup when the latest report is released this week, analysts said.