Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” Prices will go UP 2.5 cents Saturday then Sunday look for prices to go UP another 2 Cents ~ Be Safe
NMEX Crude $ 81.04 DN $.2200
NYMEX ULSD $2.7270 UP $.0182
NYMEX Gas $2.7208 UP $.0175
NEWS
Oil held steady near a four-month high as extended production cuts from OPEC and its allies boosted expectations that the crude market is headed toward a deficit. Western Texas Intermediate edged lower but still settled above $81, capping a 3.8% gain for the week. The recent rally accelerated after crude crossed its 200-day moving average of about $78.13, potentially drawing in traders seeking to benefit from oil’s momentum.
“CTA trend followers’ buying activity has buoyed the commodities complex,” said Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities. “Current price action is more likely tied to speculative positioning than fundamentals.”
Crude rallied this week after US stockpiles dropped for the first time since January and the International Energy Agency warned of a supply deficit for the year, reversing a forecast for a surplus. Geopolitical tensions also remain high after Ukraine attacked another Russian refinery. Potential headwinds to another leg higher in the rally include rising non-OPEC supply and softer physical markets as refineries go through seasonal maintenance.
Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOU TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” Prices will go UP 7 cents Friday then 2.5 Saturday ~ Be Safe
NMEX Crude $ 81.26 UP $1.5400
NYMEX ULSD $2.7088 UP $0.0237
NYMEX Gas $2.7033 UP $0.0418
NEWS
April WTI crude oil on Thursday closed up +1.54 (+1.93%), and Apr RBOB gasoline closed +4.18 (+1.57%). Oil prices rallied on Thursday’s IEA’s report, which said the oil markets face a supply deficit for the remainder of this year due to OPEC+ production cuts. Oil prices added to Wednesday’s gains, which were sparked by the bullish US EIA weekly inventory report and Ukrainian drone strikes on three Russian refineries.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) Thursday forecasted that the global oil markets will be in a deficit through the end of 2024 if OPEC+ maintains its current production cuts, although the balance would turn to a surplus if OPEC+ starts pumping more oil. OPEC+ will meet on June 1 to decide on production levels for the second half of 2024. The IEA also raised its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2024 by 110,000 bpd to 1.3 million bpd due to a stronger US economic outlook and the increased fuel needed for ships to take longer routes to avoid Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Wednesday’s weekly EIA was bullish after crude oil inventories fell -1.54 million bbl versus expectations for a 1.0 million bbl build. Also, gasoline inventories fell -5.66 million bbl, a larger decline than expectations of -2.2 million bbl. In a partially offsetting bearish factor, distillate inventories rose +888,000 versus expectations for a decline of -1.05 million bbl.
Oil prices were undercut Tuesday after the US DOE Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecasted that US crude oil production in 2024 will rise +2.0% y/y to 13.19 million bpd, +0.7% higher than the previous projection of 13.10 million bpd. The EIA is predicting that US oil production in 2025 will increase by +3.5% y/y to 13.65 million bpd, 1.2% higher than the previous forecast. Higher US production would at least partially offset OPEC+ production cuts. The EIA is forecasting a global oil deficit of 260,000 bpd this year, but a surplus of 360,000 bpd in 2025.
OPEC, in its monthly report released on Tuesday, kept its forecasts roughly unchanged for oil supply and demand in 2023 and 2024. OPEC is still forecasting that world oil consumption in 2024 will increase by a “robust” 2.2 million bpd (+2.2%) to a record 104.5 million bpd. OPEC noted in its report that OPEC+ has not met its agreed-upon production cut due in part to overproduction by Iraq. OPEC+ announced on March 3 that it would extend its current crude production cuts of about 2 million bpd until the end of June. The group said its crude production cuts will be “returned gradually subject to market conditions” after the second quarter. However, OPEC Feb crude production rose +110,000 bpd to 26.680 million bpd, a bearish factor for oil prices as Iraq and UAE continue to pump above their production quotas. Also, Vortexa said on March 4 that OPEC+ compliance with crude production cuts is still “questionable.” Vortexa said that Russian oil exports were about 500,000 bpd above the OPEC+ commitments, and there are “little indications that Russia is actively cutting either crude production or exports.” Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports in the week ended March 10 rose +590,000 bpd and that Russia’s flows were 420,000 bpd above Russia’s pledge.
Crude prices have underlying support from the Israel-Hamas war and concern that all-out war might spread to Lebanon. Hezbollah and Israel have traded fire almost daily since the Israel-Hamas war erupted on Oct 7. Also, the US and UK have engaged in airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen in retaliation for Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have forced shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting global crude oil supplies.
A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices. Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -8.1% w/w to 69.01 million bbl as of March 1.
Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of March 8 were -2.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -7.3% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending March 8 fell -0.8% w/w to 13.1 million bpd, below the recent record high of 13.3 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ended March 8 fell by -2 rigs to 504 rigs, modestly above the 2-year low of 494 rigs posted on Nov 10. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 3-3/4 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
Fueling Strategy: Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY” today/tonight, Thursday prices will drop 4 cents ~ Please Be Safe
NMEX Crude $ 79.72 UP $2.1600
NYMEX ULSD $2.6851 UP $0.0686
NYMEX Gas $2.6615 UP $0.0751
NEWS
April WTI crude oil on Wednesday closed up +2.16 (+2.78%), and Apr RBOB gasoline closed up +7.51 (+2.90%). Oil prices are higher today on a bullish U.S. EIA weekly inventory report and on Ukrainian drone strikes on three Russian refineries in the past two days. Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery near Moscow was set ablaze Wednesday by a Ukrainian drone strike, damaging one of Russia’s largest refineries with 340,000 bpd of capacity.
Wednesday’s weekly EIA was bullish after crude oil inventories fell -1.54 million bbl versus expectations for a 1.0 million bbl build. Also, gasoline inventories fell -5.66 million bbl, a larger decline than expectations of -2.2 million bbl. In a partially offsetting bearish factor, distillate inventories rose +888,000 versus expectations for a decline of -1.05 million bbl.
Oil prices were undercut Tuesday after the U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecasted that U.S. crude oil production in 2024 will rise +2.0% y/y to 13.19 million bpd, +0.7% higher than the previous projection of 13.10 million bpd. The EIA is predicting that U.S. oil production in 2025 will increase by +3.5% y/y to 13.65 million bpd, 1.2% higher than the previous forecast. Higher U.S. production will offset to some extent the OPEC+ production cuts. The EIA is forecasting a global oil deficit of 260,000 bpd this year, but a surplus of 360,000 bpd in 2025.
Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOU TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” Wednesday prices will go UP 1 cent ~ Be Safe
NMEX Crude $ 77.56 DN $.3700
NYMEX ULSD $2.6165 DN $.0353
NYMEX Gas $2.5864 UP $.0059
NEWS
April WTI crude oilTuesday closed down -0.37 (-0.47%), and Apr RBOB gasoline closed up +0.59 (+0.23%). Oil prices were undercut Tuesday after the U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecasted that U.S. crude oil production in 2024 will rise +2.0% y/y to 13.19 million bpd, +0.7% higher than the previous projection of 13.10 million bpd. The EIA is predicting that U.S. oil production in 2025 will increase by +3.5% y/y to 13.65 million bpd, 1.2% higher than the previous forecast. Higher U.S. production will offset to some extent the OPEC+ production cuts. The EIA is forecasting a global oil deficit of 260,000 bpd this year, but a surplus of 360,000 bpd in 2025.
OPEC, in its monthly report released on Tuesday, kept its forecasts roughly unchanged for oil supply and demand in 2023 and 2024. OPEC is still forecasting that world oil consumption in 2024 will increase by a “robust” 2.2 million bpd (+2.2%) to a record 104.5 million bpd. OPEC noted in its report that OPEC+ has not met its agreed-upon production cut due in part to overproduction by Iraq. OPEC+ on March 3 announced that it would extend its current crude production cuts of about 2 million bpd until the end of June. The group said its crude production cuts will be “returned gradually subject to market conditions” after the second quarter. However, OPEC Feb crude production rose +110,000 bpd to 26.680 million bpd, a bearish factor for oil prices as Iraq and UAE continue to pump above their production quotas. Also, Vortexa on March 4 said that OPEC+ compliance with crude production cuts is still “questionable.” Vortexa said that Russian oil exports were about 500,000 bpd above the OPEC+ commitments, and there are “little indications that Russia is actively cutting either crude production or exports.”
A recovery in Russian crude refining from Ukrainian drone attacks is negative for prices. Bloomberg calculations show Russia processed 5.44 million bpd of crude during the Feb 15-28 period, more than +4% above levels in the first half of February. Several Russian oil processing and storage facilities were damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks but have been repaired and are running near capacity. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports in the week ended March 10 rose +590,000 bpd and that Russia’s flows were 420,000 bpd above Russia’s pledge.
Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED” today/tonight ~ Be Safe
NMEX Crude $ 77.93 DN $.0800
NYMEX ULSD $2.6518 UP $.0109
NYMEX Gas $2.5805 UP $.0533
NEWS
April WTI crude oil on Monday closed -0.08 (-0.10%), Apr RBOB gasoline closed up +5.33 (+2.11%). Crude oil prices Monday were undercut by the slightly higher dollar index and weakness in stocks. Also, crude oil saw some bearish carry-over after the president of China National Petroleum Corp’s Economics & Technology Research Institute last Friday said that China’s oil demand has entered a low-growth phase as greater use of electric vehicles and liquified natural gas will replace about 20 MMT or 10-12% of China’s gasoline and diesel consumption this year.
Gasoline prices saw support after Bloomberg reported last Friday that BP’s refinery in Whiting, Indiana may need up to two more weeks to restore normal production after obstacles in the restart process. The refinery is still having problems after a shutdown on Feb 1 caused by a loss of power.
Crude found support after OPEC+ announced on March 3 that it was extending its current crude production cuts of about 2 million bpd until the end of June. The group said its crude production cuts will be “returned gradually subject to market conditions” after the second quarter. However, OPEC Feb crude production rose +110,000 bpd to 26.680 million bpd, a bearish factor for oil prices as Iraq and UAE continue to pump above their production quotas. Also, Vortexa on March 4 said that OPEC+ compliance with crude production cuts is still “questionable.” Vortexa said that Russian oil exports were about 500,000 bpd above the OPEC+ commitments, and there are “little indications that Russia is actively cutting either crude production or exports.”
A recovery in Russian crude refining from Ukranian drone attacks is negative for prices. Bloomberg calculations show Russia processed 5.44 million bpd of crude during the Feb 15-28 period, more than +4% above levels in the first half of February. Several Russian oil processing and storage facilities were damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks but have been repaired and are running near capacity. Tanker-tracking data from Vortexa, monitored by Bloomberg, shows Russian crude exports in the week to March 3 fell about -230,000 bpd from the prior week to 2.78 million bpd, the lowest in five weeks.
Crude prices have underlying support from the Israel-Hamas war and concern that all-out war might spread to Lebanon. Hezbollah and Israel have traded fire almost daily since the Israel-Hamas war erupted on Oct 7. Also, the U.S. and UK have engaged in airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen in retaliation for Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have forced shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting global crude oil supplies.
Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOU TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” Prices will go UP 3 cents Saturday, Saturday “PARTIAL FILL ONLY” due to prices will drop 5 cents Sunday ~ Be Safe
NMEX Crude $ 78.01 DN $.9200
NYMEX ULSD $2.6409 DN $.0538
NYMEX Gas $2.5272 DN $.0276
NEWS
Crude oil and gasoline prices gave up an early advance and turned lower on Chinese energy demand concerns. Crude prices today initially moved higher after the dollar index dropped to a 7-week low. Also, today’s rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high boosts confidence in the economic outlook and is positive for energy demand and crude prices.
Crude prices came under pressure today after the president of China National Petroleum Corp’s Economics & Technology Research Institute said China’s oil demand has entered a low-growth phase as greater use of electric vehicles and liquified natural gas will replace about 20 MMT or 10-12% of China’s gasoline and diesel consumption this year.
Today’s global economic news was mixed for energy demand and crude prices. On the negative side, the U.S. Feb unemployment rate rose +0.2 to a 2-year high of 3.9%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 3.7%. Also, Japan Jan household spending fell -6.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of -4.1% y/y and the biggest decline in nearly three years. On the positive side, German Jan industrial production rose +1.0% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.6% m/m and the biggest increase in 11 months.
A decline in Russian crude oil exports is supportive of crude oil prices. Tanker-tracking data from Vortexa, monitored by Bloomberg, shows Russian crude exports in the week to March 3 fell about -230,000 bpd from the prior week to 2.78 million bpd, the lowest in five weeks.
Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOU TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” prices are down 4 cents but will go UP 6 cents Friday ~ Be Safe
NMEX Crude $ 79.93 DN $.2000
NYMEX ULSD $2.6947 UP $.0314
NYMEX Gas $2.5548 UP $.0009
NEWS
April WTI crude oil closed down -0.20 (-0.43%), and Apr RBOB gasoline closed UP -0.0009 (-0.08%). Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are trading lower after weaker-than-expected global economic news sparked energy demand concerns. Losses in crude are limited after the dollar index tumbled to a 1-week low. Also, today’s rally in the S&P 500 to a record high boosts confidence in the economic outlook, which is positive for energy demand. Today’s global economic news was weaker than expected, a bearish factor for energy demand and crude prices. The U.S. Jan trade deficit increased to -$67.4 billion, wider than expectations of -$63.3 billion and the largest deficit in 9 months, a negative factor for Q1 GDP. Also, German Jan factory orders fell -11.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of -6.0% m/m and the biggest decline in 3-3/4 years.
Today’s action by the ECB to cut its Eurozone 2024 GDP forecast to 0.6% from a December forecast of 0.8% is bearish for energy demand and crude prices. A decline in Russian crude oil exports is supportive of crude oil prices. Tanker-tracking data from Vortexa, monitored by Bloomberg, shows Russian crude exports in the week to March 3 fell about -230,000 bpd from the prior week to 2.78 million bpd, the lowest in five weeks.
Fueling Strategy: Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY” today/tonight, Wednesday prices will drop 6 cents ~ Be Safe
NMEX Crude $ 78.15 DN $.5900
NYMEX ULSD $2.6065 DN $.0407
NYMEX Gas $2.5328 DN $.0529
NEWS
April WTI crude oil on Tuesday closed down -0.59 (-0.75%), and Apr RBOB gasoline closed down -5.29 (-2.05%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday gave up an early advance and turned lower. Crude prices came under pressure after Tuesday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. economic news on Jan factory orders and Feb ISM services raised concerns about energy demand. Also, Tuesday’s slump in equities dampened confidence in the economic outlook, which is negative for energy demand.
Crude on Tuesday initially rose after the dollar index slid to a 1-1/2 week low. Also, speculation that China will boost stimulus to revive its economy lifted crude prices. In addition, ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East are a supportive factor for crude oil.
Tuesday’s U.S. economic news was weaker than expected, a negative factor for energy demand and crude prices. Jan factory orders fell -3.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of -2.9% m/m and the biggest decline in 3-3/4 years. Also, the Feb ISM services index fell -0.8 to 52.6, weaker than expectations of 53.0.
Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED” today/tonight ~ Be Safe
NMEX Crude $ 78.74 DN $1.2300
NYMEX ULSD $2.6472 DN $0.0570
NYMEX Gas $2.5857 DN $0.0287
NEWS
April WTI crude oil on Monday closed down -1.23 (-1.54%), and Apr RBOB gasoline closed down -2.87 (-1.10%). Crude oil and gasoline prices posted moderate losses on Monday. An increase in OPEC crude production is bearish for oil prices. Also, doubts about OPEC+ compliance with its crude production cuts are bearish for oil prices. Ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East are a supportive factor for crude oil.
OPEC Feb crude production rose +110,000 bpd to 26.680 million bpd, a bearish factor for oil prices as Iraq and UAE continue to pump above their production quotas.
A recovery in Russian crude refining from Ukranian drone attacks is negative for prices. Bloomberg calculations show Russia processed 5.44 million bpd of crude during the Feb 15-28 period, more than +4% above levels in the first half of February. Several Russian oil processing and storage facilities have been targeted and damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks but have been repaired and are running near capacity.
A report from Vortexa on Monday weighed on crude prices as it said OPEC+ compliance with crude production cuts is still “questionable.” The report said that Russian oil exports were about 500,000 bpd above the OPEC+ commitments, and there are “little indications that Russia is actively cutting either crude production or exports.” An increase in Russian crude oil exports is negative for crude oil prices. Tanker-tracking data from Vortexa, monitored by Bloomberg, shows Russian crude exports in the week to Feb 25 rose about +365,000 bpd from the prior week to 3.5 million bpd.
Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOU TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” prices are down 9 cents but will go UP 3 cents Saturday ~ Be Safe
NMEX Crude $ 79.97 UP $1.7100
NYMEX ULSD $2.7042 UP $0.0543
NYMEX Gas $2.6144 UP $0.0334
NEWS
April WTI crude oil on Friday up +1.71 (+2.19%), and Apr RBOB gasoline closed up +3.34 (+1.29%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday closed moderately higher, with crude posting a 3-3/4 month high and gasoline posting a 5-1/2 month high. A weaker dollar on Friday was supportive of energy prices. Crude also has support on expectations that OPEC+ next week would extend its roughly 2 million bpd of crude production cuts beyond March. In addition, the ongoing attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial shipping in the Red Sea have disrupted Middle Eastern crude supplies and strengthened the U.S. physical oil markets as foreign buyers turn to U.S. crude supplies to avoid shipping issues. Crude prices fell back from their best levels Friday after weekly data from Baker Hughes showed active U.S. oil rigs rose to a 5-month high.
Crude prices are supported by concern that the Israel-Hamas war will widen to Lebanon. Hezbollah and Israel have traded fire almost daily since the Israel-Hamas war erupted on Oct 7. Also, the U.S. and UK have engaged in airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen in retaliation for Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have forced shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting global crude oil supplies.
Friday’s U.S. economic news was weaker-than-expected and bearish for energy demand and crude prices. The Feb ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell -1.3 to 47.8, weaker than expectations of an increase to 49.5. Also, Jan construction spending unexpectedly fell -0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and the biggest decline in 15 months. In addition, the University of Michigan U.S. Feb consumer sentiment index was revised downward by -2.7 to 76.9, weaker than expectations of no change at 79.6.
