Fueling Strategy: Please fill as needed tonight, Be Safe Today!

NYMEX Crude $ 48.88 DN $.1900
NY Harbor ULSD $1.5145 DN $.0015
NYMEX Gasoline $1.5362 DN $.0234

NEWS
Oil futures finished at their lowest level in a week on Monday, as an increase in the number of active U.S. oil-drilling rigs pointed to a possible uptick in production. Recently weak economic data and the coming Brexit vote in the U.K. and Federal Reserve meeting on monetary policy also raised concerns about a potential slowdown in crude demand, but a decline in the U.S. dollar kept losses for dollar-denominated oil at a minimum.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July West Texas Intermediate crude edged down by 19 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $48.88 a barrel—the lowest finish since June 3. Prices briefly traded higher Monday as traders were “shaking off some fear and getting ready to price in” a big draw in U.S. crude supplies for Wednesday’s weekly report, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. August Brent crude fell 19 cents, or 0.4%, to $50.35 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange, after briefly falling below $50 a barrel for the first time in a week.

Baker Hughes Inc. said late Friday the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. rose by three in the week ended June 10, the second straight weekly increase. “While the actual increase is minuscule compared to the 1,000+ rigs that have come offline in the past 18 months, it allows for speculation about the stabilization of U.S. crude production and the potential rebound,” said Daniel Holder, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric. “The market since Thursday has taken this speculation as bearish, since the oversupplied global market will take longer to rebalance if U.S. shale production returns.” Fawad Razaqzada, chief technical analyst at Forex.com and City Index, said that “although the oil rally could still go north of $60 and reach even $70,” the latest rig-count data serve “as a reminder that the global supply glut is unlikely to be eradicated completely any time soon.” He also said that investors are “spooked about the prospects of a U.K. exit from the [European Union], the economic impact of a potential U.S. rate rise this summer, and renewed demand concerns out of China.” The Fed will issue a statement on monetary policy on Wednesday. The U.K., meanwhile, will hold a Brexit vote on June 23.

Analysts say given the lackluster U.S. jobs report last month, central bankers will likely keep interest rates where they are. The weaker-than-expected jobs data also raised worries that demand will weaken. Changes in the interest rates have an impact on the U.S. dollar, and thus also on dollar-denominated commodities such as oil. On Monday, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index inched lower, providing some support for oil.

A monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries released Monday showed that the group kept forecasts for global oil supply and demand unchanged. It expects global oil demand to increase by 1.2 million barrels a day this year to 94.18 million barrels a day. But OPEC has also joined “a growing tide of forecasters that are now calling for a less substantial decline to U.S. production going forward, following the recent rise in prices,” Robbie Fraser, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, told MarketWatch. “Add in a few unrelated reports trickling in that Nigerian export volumes have seemed surprisingly high in the wake of recent [militant] attacks,” and the market had reason to move lower on the day, even as the dollar and stock markets saw a bit of weakness.

After oil futures prices settled on Monday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that oil production from seven major U.S. shale plays is expected to fall by 118,000 barrels a day to 4.72 million barrels a day in July from June, extending the overall decline over the past several months. In electronic trading shortly after the data were released, WTI oil was at $48.84, near the day’s settlement.