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NYMEX Crude $ 48.49 DN $.3900
NY Harbor ULSD $1.5020 DN $.0125
NYMEX Gasoline $1.5213 DN $.0149

NEWS
Oil futures settled at a three-week low on Tuesday, dragged down by uncertainty surrounding the coming Federal Reserve interest-rate decision and a referendum on whether the U.K. should exit the European Union. Futures fell despite a report from the International Energy Agency that showed higher oil-demand expectations. July West Texas Intermediate crude lost 39 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $48.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the fourth consecutive decline in a row and marked the lowest finish since May 23. August Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange lost 52 cents, or 1%, to $49.83 a barrel.

A report from the Energy Information Administration Monday revealed expectations for a decline of 118,000 barrels a day for domestic shale\ output in July, compared with June and data from Baker Hughes released Friday showed that while the number of U.S. rigs actively drilling for oil rose by 3 to 328, they’re still down by 48% from a year ago. Separate EIA data have also shown that crude supplies have declined over the past three weeks. The “shale data, rig counts, supply figures all suggest prices should be firm, but the broader macroeconomic fundamental picture is creating headwinds in the energy complex…that has the crude-oil market on the defensive,” said Tim Evans, chief market strategist at Long Leaf Trading Group.

“The fast approaching Fed announcement, the higher prospects for a British exit from the EU, record low German bund yields, and a global equities selloff is dominating the market environment currently,” he said. The Fed’s rate decision is due Wednesday, though the central bank isn’t expected to hike rates following the worst monthly jobs report in more than five years. The Brexit vote is set for June 23. “As the dust settles from these events, crude oil should be positioned to perform well—especially if the market sells off sharply as the market is digesting these macroeconomic variables,” said Evans.

IEA ups demand-growth view
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency on Tuesday revised its demand-growth forecast upward for this year to 1.3 million barrels a day from 1.2 million barrels a day. Demand will be led by emerging markets in India and China as the manufacturing industry grows, the report said. The IEA also released its first demand-growth forecast for 2017, for 1.3 million barrels a day to total 97.4 million barrels a day. But the IEA warned that should supply be restored in Nigeria and Canada, there could be a dip in prices. Nigerian output fell 250,000 barrels a day to 1.37 million barrels a day in June, levels not seen in almost 30 years. “I’m envisaging Canada [output coming] back quickly, but Nigeria being a prolonged problem,” Matt Parry, IEA senior oil economist, told Market Watch. U.S. production, meanwhile, shows signs of recovery. Late on Monday, the U.S.-based Genscape Inc. tipped a 525,000-barrel increase in U.S. crude stockpiles in the week ended June 10. The American Petroleum Institute will release fresh supply estimates late Tuesday, followed by data from the EIA Wednesday.

Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts, on average, forecast a fall of 1.4 million barrels in last week’s crude inventories. They also expect a fall of 1.25 million barrels for gasoline stockpiles and a decline of 750,000 barrels for distillates, which include heating oil.